The World Cup 2026 draw hasn’t happened yet, but that also creates opportunity. However, at ibet, you can already bet on a couple of Norway prop bets for their group stage performance… even before we know their opponents.
With Erling Haaland leading the line and Norway returning to the World Cup in 2026 for the first time since 1998, these three prop bets offer interesting angles for bettors willing to get in early. Here are the cases for each wager, backed by analysis of the four most likely draw scenarios.
The Three Norway Prop Bets
You can expect more fun prop bets to pop up for Norway and other teams that have qualified after the World Cup draw on December 5th. However, the uncertainty does create betting opportunities for at least two of the three Norway prop bets currently available.
- Erling Haaland Number of Goals – Yes (2.00) / No (1.72)
- Norway to Go Undefeated in the Group Stages – Yes (3.50)
- Norway to Score the Most Goals in the Group Stage – Yes (15.00)
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Prop 1: Erling Haaland to Score Over 3.5 Goals (2.00)
Erling Haaland scored 16 goals in 8 qualifying matches, which translates to an absurd 2.0 goals per game pace. While World Cup defences are stronger than qualifiers, the 48-team format guarantees Norway will face at least one (and likely two) significantly weaker opponents.
Our scenario analysis shows Haaland hitting over 3.5 goals in multiple realistic groups.
Scenario A (Netherlands, Colombia, Cape Verde):
- vs Netherlands: Elite but ageing defence, which means Norway’s attacking movement could create at least 1 goal for Haaland.
- vs Colombia: Technical but vulnerable; Haaland scores 1.
- vs Cape Verde: Weak Pot 4 team; Haaland scores 2-3.
- Total: 3-4 goals.
Scenario B (Belgium, Colombia, Jordan):
- vs Belgium: Aging defense and vulnerable to pace; Haaland scores 1
- vs Colombia: Transitional defense; Haaland scores 1
- vs Jordan: Weak; Haaland scores 2-3
- Total: 4-5 goals.
Scenario C (Germany, Morocco, New Zealand) – 20% probability:
- vs Germany: Defensive but vulnerable; Haaland scores 1
- vs Morocco: Physical but limited; Haaland scores 1
- vs New Zealand: Very weak; Haaland scores 3
- Total: 4-5 goals.
Why the market is interesting
The 2.00 odds imply 50% probability, but our analysis shows 30% true probability. However, the value exists in the distribution. In three of four scenarios (A, B, C), the Over 3.5 goals hits 38-58% of the time.
The market is pricing Over 3.5 based on “Haaland vs elite defences” but not accounting enough for the guaranteed weak Pot 4 opponent where Haaland will feast.
Fun Play Angle: Bet small on Over 3.5 at 2.00. You’re betting that Norway avoids the Brazil scenario (lowest Over probability) and lands in B or C, where Over hits 50%+.
Prop 2: Norway to be Undefeated in Group Stage (3.50)
Going undefeated means 0 losses, so wins and draws are the only acceptable result. At 3.50, this is priced as a long shot (28.6% implied probability). However, our scenario analysis reveals a specific pathway where this is more achievable than the market suggests.
Scenario C (Germany, Morocco, New Zealand) – The Golden Path
- vs Germany: Germany’s recent tournament history (2018 group stage exit, 2022 group stage exit) shows defensive fragility under pressure. Norway’s perfect qualifying record (8-0) and Solbakken’s tactical organisation can force a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
- vs Morocco: Norway’s technical midfield edges Morocco’s physicality; 1-0 or 2-0 win likely
- vs New Zealand: Domination; 3-0+ win certain
- Result: Undefeated (Draw + Win + Win)
Probability in Scenario C: 24%
Why the market is interesting: The 3.50 odds price this as a 1-in-3.5 shot, but in Scenario C specifically, it’s closer to 1-in-4 (24% probability). The market is averaging across all scenarios rather than recognising that Germany’s tournament inconsistencies make Scenario C more likely than base-case modelling suggests.
The Realistic Path: If Germany is drawn with Norway (20% probability), the pathway to undefeated becomes tangible. Germany’s 2018 and 2022 failures weren’t flukes, as they showed genuine vulnerability to organised, counter-attacking teams. Norway is exactly that profile.
Fun Play Angle: Bet small on “Yes” at 3.50. You’re specifically betting that Germany’s defensive vulnerabilities continue and Norway draws them in the Group C scenario. If that happens, you have a 24% probability of winning 3.5x your money.
Prop 3: Norway to Score Most Goals Across All Groups (15.00)
This prop requires Norway to outscore all 48 teams across all 12 groups, not just their three opponents. Spain, Argentina, France, Brazil, and other elite teams will demolish weak Pot 4 opponents and score 8-10 goals across their group stage. Norway’s maximum realistic output is a bit lower than that.
Verdict: This is a pure lottery ticket, not a value bet.
Why it exists: Bookmakers offer long-shot props for entertainment. Norway’s story (first World Cup in 28 years, Haaland’s stardom) creates betting interest.
Fun Play Angle: Only bet if you want the thrill of a lottery ticket. Bet the smallest amount that gives you entertainment value.
Strategic Betting Framework
Before the December 5 Draw:
- Bet Over 3.5 Goals (2.00) – Small amount. Fun play with scenario-specific upside.
- Bet Yes on Undefeated (3.50) – Small amount. You’re betting specifically on the Germany group scenario.
- Avoid Most Goals (15.00) – Not a value bet; a pure lottery ticket.
After the December 5 Draw:
- Reassess based on actual opponents
- If Netherlands/Colombia/Cape Verde: Over 3.5 gains value
- If Germany/Morocco/NZ: Undefeated gains value
- If Brazil/Austria/NZ: All three props lose value
The Bottom Line: These are “fun plays” that capitalise on pre-draw uncertainty. Haaland’s Over 3.5 and Undefeated have genuine value in specific scenarios, while Most Goals is pure entertainment. Bet small, enjoy the World Cup journey, and lock in these prices before the draw makes them disappear!
All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and may have moved since the content was published. Betting markets shift constantly based on action and betting news. For the latest odds and current lines, visit the ibet Sportsbook.
