From Belgrade back to Sin City, Las Vegas, the Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to our screens this Saturday, August 8, with UFC Vegas 120, headlined by Mateusz Gamrot and Quillan Salkilld. The main event pits Gamrot’s battle-tested wrestling against one of Australia’s fastest-rising lightweight prospects, but there is plenty more to wager on before those two enter the Octagon. With 12 fights currently scheduled at the Meta APEX, it’s only right that I share my full UFC Vegas 120 best bets, predictions, and UFC odds analysis to help you find the value at ibet.
- Bet on Alexia Thainara to win by submission or decision at 1.54 [-184] at ibet.
- Our second best bet is Miles Johns to win at 1.58 [-172] at ibet.
- Boost your bankroll with our UFC odds at ibet sportsbook.
For more expert sports betting coverage, visit the ibet betting news blog for fresh previews, predictions, and analysis across UFC and other major sporting events.
Before locking in your UFC Vegas 120 best bets, check the ibet promotions page to see whether any current sportsbook offers could add extra value to your fight-night wagers. You can also browse Dave’s author page for more of his UFC betting analysis, including his latest UFC Vegas 120 main event picks and predictions.
UFC Vegas 120 Best Bets
Amanda Lemos 3.00 (+200) vs. Alexia Thainara 1.34 (-294)
Matchup Edge: A top-ranked O.G. faces a 3-0 strawweight prospect.
There was a time when Amanda Lemos at 3.00 odds going against a 3-0 prospect would’ve been an automatic bet. Unfortunately, the 39-year-old Brazilian and former title challenger has lost a lot of that trust, having lost 3 of her previous 4 bouts to seemingly battle the unwinnable fight which none of us can conquer… age!
Alexia Thainara is entering the biggest fight of her career versus a former title contender after just three UFC appearances. Why? Because she’s dominated all of those bouts, proving that her skill set is levels above the rest. Most importantly, she’s 11 years the senior of her opponent, an opponent who could be a meal ticket to becoming the next worthy contender.
Lemos vs. Thainara Prediction
Yes, Lemos still has power at 115 lbs that would make most women wince. She’s also got a respectable ground game when placed on the offensive. The problem with her grappling, however, is the defensive side. Last time out, despite defending the actual takedowns of Gillian Robertson, Lemos couldn’t break away to avoid getting dragged to the mat, and when on her back, she just isn’t trustworthy.
So, now we have an absolute grappling ace in Thainara, and it feels like a carbon copy outcome is about to ensue. Not to mention, Thainara’s aggression is commendable, and she will hunt submissions relentlessly.
The juice isn’t pretty, but backing Thainara to win by submission or decision significantly boosts our price in a matchup that, well, puts all the chips outside of punching power on the side of the favorite.
Lemos vs. Thainara Best Bet: Thainara Win by Submission or Decision at 1.54 [-185]
Darren Elkins 5.55 (+445) vs. Yadier del Valle 1.11 (-909)
Matchup Edge: A UFC veteran faces a new breed of featherweight talent.
Let’s put some respect on Darren Elkins name because at 42 years old, his weekend octagon walk will be the 30th of his UFC career. With that said, don’t let his recent record fool you, because he hasn’t defeated a legitimate UFC opponent since Michael Johnson in 2018.
Let me explain. Elkins, on paper, has won 5 of his previous 8 UFC bouts. Here’s the caveat: most of those wins came against fellow aging fighters, and not one of them remains on the UFC roster. That’s right, Elkins doesn’t have a victory over an active UFC fighter since the aforementioned Johnson in 2018.
Then we have Yadier del Valle, who crashed as a favorite versus the less-than-desirable talents of Jordan Leavitt last time out. It was an odd result, but we’re willing to overlook this, especially considering he’s 12 years younger than Elkins behind a 10-1 pro record.
Elkins vs. Del Valle Prediction
Elkins has a gritty style, and his successes come from grinding down the opposition and simply working harder. However, he’s taken so much damage at 42 years old that I believe a strong gust of wind might be capable of knocking him down.
Do I believe Del Valle is a world-beater? No, not at all. Do I think people are silly for thinking Elkins’s underdog price is worth it, as it has been in the past? Definitely.
Seriously, what are we doing here? The UFC knows Elkins is on the way out, which is why he’s no longer receiving winnable matchups. They want to prop up the younger talent, and Del Valle fits the profile.
Del Valle has a slick ground game, but I do believe this fight ends however he wants. Unfortunately, oddsmakers aren’t giving us much to work with, so we’ll back the under 1 ½ rounds in a fight that doesn’t favor the 42-year-old dealing with a lifetime of damage going against a youthful prospect.
Elkins vs. Del Valle Best Bet: Under 1 ½ Rounds at 1.75 [-133]
Miles Johns 1.58 (-172) vs. Jessie Rosas 2.23 (+123)
Matchup Edge: A UFC debutant is overpriced versus a veteran despite being the underdog.
Jessie Rosas is the younger brother of Raul Rosas Jr., but this weekend he’s taking his UFC debut on short notice versus a legitimate veteran in Miles Johns.
Now I understand the name value of the Rosas surname and Johns losing streak might shift these odds, but surely Jessie Rosas should be a bigger underdog than +123? He’s fought absolutely nobody worth mentioning in his pro career; he’s 23 years old and was getting choked out by a 6-5 fighter not so long ago. Simply put, he doesn’t have the grappling chops of his brother, and being thrown into the deep end like this will likely cost him.
Johns vs. Rosas Prediction
Johns is a well-rounded fighter, but most importantly, he knows how to win. A 12-month layoff is somewhat of a concern, but just through strength and know-how alone, he shouldn’t struggle versus a very green fighter in Rosas.
Critics will mention Johns’ three-fight losing streak, but those opponents were levels above Rosas. It might have to go through all three rounds, but Johns at 1.58 odds this weekend feels like a steal.
Johns vs. Rosas Best Bet: Johns to Win at 1.58 [-172]
UFC Vegas 120 Best Bets Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 8, 2026 – 11:00 p.m. CET
- Location: The UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & Paramount+
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event Bout: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld
- Co-Main Event Bout: Billy Quarantillo vs. Diego Ferreira
- Biggest UFC F Betting Favorite: Yadier del Valle @ -909
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Explore More Sports Betting Guides at ibet
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All odds listed on this page were accurate at the time of writing and may have changed since publication. Sportsbook markets can move as betting activity, news and other market factors develop. For the latest prices and available lines, visit the ibet sportsbook.
