For our UFC Vegas 123 main event best bets, Tom Nolan’s reward for five consecutive wins is a five-round date with Renato Moicano, because yes, the UFC has a funny way of saying “well done.”
- Moicano vs. Nolan Best Bet 1: Moicano to Win at 1.74 [-135] at ibet.
- Moicano vs. Nolan Best Bet 2: Under 3.5 Rounds at 1.51 [-196] at ibet.
- Find the best UFC odds at ibet sportsbook!
UFC Vegas 123
Saturday’s UFC Vegas 123 main event gives the Australian his biggest opportunity yet, with a recognizable name and an experienced submission hunter standing between him and a breakthrough victory. Moicano has shared the Octagon with elite opposition, and he won’t need reminding how much a hungry contender would enjoy adding his name to the collection.
That makes this a dangerous assignment for both men. Nolan gets the chance to prove his winning streak can survive a step up in competition, while Moicano must show he still has more to offer than a famous nickname and a respectable ranking. If the Brazilian gets Nolan’s back, however, that lesson could become painfully clear.
Does Nolan make his first UFC main event a night to remember, or is there still money to be made backing “Money”? Let’s get into my Moicano vs Nolan main event picks, analysis, and predictions, including the best bets to play at ibet.
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Moicano vs. Nolan UFC Vegas 123: Tale of the Tape
| Renato Moicano | Tom Nolan | |
| Country | Brazil | Australia |
| Age | 37 | 26 |
| Pro Record (Win/Loss) | 21-7-1 | 11-1-0 |
| KO/Submission | 8 KOs, 1 Submission | 9 KOs, 7 Submissions |
| Height | 5’11” | 6’2” |
| Reach | 72” | 73” |
| Win/Loss (Last 5) | W/L/L/W/W | W/W/W/W/W |
| Moneyline Price | 1.74 [-135] | 1.96 [-103] |
Inside the Octagon UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan Prediction & Analysis
It’s More Than “Money”
There’s a reason why Renato ‘Money’ Moicano is a main eventer without an expected path to title contention… He’s entertaining, often surprisingly successful even as an underdog, and is always up for the scrap no matter the opponent. And while money is the obvious motive, Saturday’s main event versus an opponent who’s never fought at this level might be his most costly.
Moicano proved that there’s levels to this against Chris Duncan, who was another fighter looking to make a name of Moicano’s position in this company. Now we have Tom Nolan, another fighter that’s climbing the rankings and hoping to elevate his standing at 155lbs.
So, yes, this is more than money for Moicano. He’ll once again be looking to prove that you need to be elite to stop him, but the question is, is Nolan that guy?
Is It ‘Too Much, Too Soon,’ for the Aussie?
I understand the UFC wanting to prop up Australian fighters while the GOTA Alexander Volkanovski isn’t far from retirement. However, this weekend in Vegas, in his first five-round main event, Tom Nolan will be taking a 10-position jump in the rankings to fight Moicano (#9) after facing a #21-ranked Fares Ziam.
While Ziam is good, this would be Nolan’s most impressive win to date, and it doesn’t really teach us how capable he is, or how high is ceiling can really go. Since joining the UFC, yes, Nolan is 5-1, but his style doesn’t pose many threats from the knockout or submission category, and that could be a problem in the talent rich lightweight division.
UFC Vegas 123 Best Bets: Moicano vs. Nolan Betting Picks
Moicano Moneyline
Replicating what he achieved against Duncan last time out, I believe Moican can big brother Nolan in a similar fashion. I’m not sold on the Aussie because there simply isn’t enough evidence to feel that way.
I think age and favorable longevity at 26 have saved Nolan on multiple occasions because he’s hardly been the most defensively sound fighter (including knockdowns). And while that toughness is a credit to him, a higher level of competition won’t allow him to get away with it.
Nolan isn’t scared of mixing it up, and that’ll be his downfall. The difference in grappling level is huge here, and this is where Moicano can dominate if a striking battle fails him.
Moicano to Win at 1.74 [-135]
Over/under
Again, Moicano’s grappling is a level above Nolan’s. It’s the Brazilian’s most likely path to victory, and as a fighter who always hunts the finish, a submission or even a grounded TKO isn’t out of the question.
For UFC Vegas 123 best bets, it’s hard to ignore the potential for a finish. Nolan would really need to get his striking going and find an early knockout to win this fight, in my opinion. Then, of course, he’s unproven across 25 minutes, and fighting submissions and potential ground and pound for that stretched time limit doesn’t favor him either.
Both of the above factors have me leaning to the under, although we’ll notch is up to 3.5 rounds just because the chin and grit of both fighters could extend it to the fourth.
Under 3.5 Rounds 1.51 [-196]
UFC Vegas 123 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 31, 2026 – 11:00 p.m. CET
- Location: Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
- How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass, Paramount+ & Viaplay
- Main Event Bout: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan
- Co-Main Event Bout: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith
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