Putting a man nicknamed “All In” at the top of a Las Vegas fight card feels almost too convenient. Unfortunately for Brendan Allen, Christian Leroy Duncan isn’t coming to town to admire the nickname. That sets the stage for our UFC Vegas 122 best bets.
UFC Vegas 122 brings the Octagon back to the Meta APEX this Saturday, with Allen’s top-five middleweight spot firmly in Duncan’s sights. The American has won three straight, but the Englishman arrives with five consecutive victories and a chance to turn his first UFC main event into a career-changing night.
And while those two handle the headline business, there are 11 more fights to get stuck into. Matheus Camilo meets Jai Herbet, Felipe Franco faces Brendson Ribeiro, and Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim adds another tricky matchup to the betting board.
So, which favorites deserve our trust, and where might the underdogs bite back? Let’s get into my UFC Vegas 122 full card best bets, fight analysis, and fight night predictions to play at ibet.
- Bet on Matheus Camilo to win at 1.47 UFC odds at ibet.
- Back Prado to win with a price of 1.85 at ibet.
- Franco to win by knockout or submission is our final best bet [1.40] at ibet.
- Boost your bankroll with our UFC odds at ibet sportsbook.
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Before placing your UFC Vegas 122 best bets, check the ibet promotions page for current offers that may add value to your fight-night selections. You can also visit Dave’s author page for more of his UFC betting analysis, including his UFC Vegas 122 main event breakdown.
UFC Vegas 122 Best Bets
Matheus Camilo 1.47 (-212) vs. Jai Herbert 2.50 (+150)
Matchup Edge: Fireworks on the feet and a 13-year age gap.
Jai Herbert is never going to challenge for a title, but he’s undeniably a lightweight staple whose ability will show whether the new blood is capable at this level. He finished an up-and-comer in Mandel Nallo by knockout last time out, showing that, despite his age, anyone who isn’t worthy at this level shouldn’t be a blind favorite when against his striking credentials.
Matheus Camilo, at 25 with only three UFC bouts, is one of those aforementioned new bloods. Having been involved in a submission loss, a bore-fest, and a quick round-one knockout win shows his lack of experience, but with such a young talent, we’re always expecting progression from fight to fight.
Camilo vs. Herbert Prediction
It’s difficult to fade Herbert; “The Black Country Banger” trains just a car drive from my home, but I also know emotions cannot dictate my analysis just because I like to see local fighters succeed. And in this spot, we’re going to have a striker’s delight, one where I really don’t envision the solid chin of the younger fighter collapsing for the first time.
For Camilo, he’s going to be faster to the punch, and the counters are where I could see a brutal response. After last week’s knockout fest, I think the UFC has shifted their matchmaking in the Paramount era, and this bout in particular is prime for a savage finish.
The 13-year age gap is a lot; Camilo looked much more confident in his previous bout compared to the first two, and with a co-main event spot, I think he’ll be incredibly hungry to break the chin of Herbert, who has notably failed the Brit three times in his career to date.
Camilo vs. Herbert Best Bet: Camilo to Win at 1.47 [-212]
Francisco Prado 1.85 (-117) vs. Ismael Bonfim 1.85 (-117)
Matchup Edge: Measure toughness, and this fight is easy to pick.
Ismael Bonfim has the talent, but he’s lacked a true fighting spirit throughout his UFC career to date, and he enters Saturday’s card on a 3-fight losing skid. Moreover, his 2-4 record in the promotion includes four stoppages, suggesting he doesn’t like getting hurt and consistently looks for a way out when the chips are down.
In contrast, Francisco Prado has that dawg in him. The Argentinian also has a losing record in the UFC (1-5), and we don’t expect him to go on a huge run into title contention. However, if you’re measuring toughness in this spot, Bonfim is a very winnable fight, not just for Prado, but for anyone.
Prado vs. Bonfim Prediction
Prado opened as an underdog, but the line has quickly shifted to evens. There’s a good reason: Bonfim is just untrustworthy in the durability department. He doesn’t handle pressure, and while Prado has faltered on the scorecards, we cannot even expect Bonfim to make it that far in a fight before faltering to the damage.
Looking at this week’s UFC Vegas 122 best bets, how can we not fade the fighter that has been stopped inside round one or two in all four of his losses and whose only win between those defeats was against a retired Vinc Pichel? Prado for win via pressure striking!
Prado vs. Bonfim Best Bet: Prado to Win at 1.85 [-117]
Felipe Franco 1.26 (-384) vs. Brendson Ribeiro 3.47 (+247)
Matchup Edge: Well,
With a four-fight losing streak, including two knockouts and one submission, nobody is running to the window to bet on Brendson Ribeiro, and that’s why he’s the biggest underdog on the UFC Vegas 122 card. The Brazilian is 2-6 in the UFC, and while he might actually hold a striking advantage versus his weekend opponent, a former heavyweight in Felipe Franco is highly likely to smother him from the opening bell.
Franco, just 1-1 in the UFC, knows that Ribeiro’s knockout potential is the biggest threat. More to the point, his 11-2 pro record has never involved a knockout loss, and as a former heavyweight, his fellow Brazilian might feel lighter than he’s used to, thus making the takedown attempts come easy.
Franco vs. Ribeiro Prediction
Ribeiro’s defensive ground game is a concern. Once Franco gets this fight to the ground, the round will likely be won, and better still, we know he hunts for a finish, whether it’s grounded strikes or submission attempts.
The most difficult prediction here is anticipating which method of victory Franco will win by. I’m almost certain the takedown will come, but whether he rains down a barrage of punches or hunts a submission is anyone’s guess. And on that note, we’ll have to accept a little juice and back the favorite to win by knockout or submission.
Franco vs. Ribeiro Best Bet: Franco by KO or Submission at 1.40 [-250]
UFC Vegas 122 Best Bets Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 10, 2026 – 11:00 p.m. CET
- Location: Meta APEX, Las Vegas
- How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass, Viaplay, & Paramount+
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event Bout: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
- Co-Main Event Bout: Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
- Biggest UFC Vegas 122 Betting Favorite: RJ Harris at 1.34
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