The World Cup 2026 is still months away, but the betting odds have already shifted a bit at ibet, with 42 of the 48 teams already qualified for the biggest football tournament in the world. However, with the World Cup 2026 draw taking place this Friday, December 5, 2025, you can certainly expect the World Cup 2026 odds to fluctuate once the group stage has been decided.
Six teams still need to fight through the playoffs in March to claim their spots. Yet the outright betting markets are already buzzing with activity. Following their dominant Euro 2024 campaign, Spain sits atop as outright favourites, but, for sharp bettors, the real opportunity lies in identifying value bets where the market has mispriced teams.
The expanded 48-team format, the three-nation hosting setup, and the wildcards that will emerge after the playoffs create pricing inefficiencies that won’t exist come June.
This guide breaks down the latest World Cup odds at ibet, analyses where genuine value currently lives in the market, and explains how the new format affects prediction models. Whether you’re eyeing the favourites or hunting for longshots, understanding these dynamics now gives you a head start before the draw reshuffles everything.
Not sure how to get started? Check out our World Cup 2026 betting guide for step-by-step instructions on placing your first bet. Also, remember to keep an eye out for our special promotions as the World Cup draws closer.
World Cup 2026 Odds at a Glance
The World Cup 2026 odds have solidified significantly as the playoffs have been determined and the draw date nears. Spain is currently the consensus favourite across all major bookmakers, including ibet, where they’re priced at 5.00 in decimal format. This translates to an 18.2% implied probability of winning the tournament.
Below is the current odds table, at ibet’s sportsbook, for all 42 qualified teams as of December 1, 2025. The odds reflect each team’s perceived likelihood of winning the tournament based on squad strength, recent form, tournament experience, and the strength of their potential opponents.
World Cup 2026 Outright Winner Odds – ibet
The Favorites (5.00 – 15.00)
| Team | Odds | Status |
| Spain | 5.00 | Qualified |
| France | 7.60 | Qualified |
| England | 7.60 | Qualified |
| Brazil | 8.00 | Qualified |
| Argentina | 9.00 | Qualified |
| Germany | 13.00 | Qualified |
| Portugal | 13.00 | Qualified |
Contenders (21.00 – 90.00)
| Team | Odds | Status |
| Netherlands | 21.00 | Qualified |
| Italy | 35.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path A) |
| Norway | 35.00 | Qualified |
| Belgium | 50.00 | Qualified |
| Uruguay | 50.00 | Qualified |
| Colombia | 50.00 | Qualified |
| Croatia | 70.00 | Qualified |
| Denmark | 70.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path D) |
| Morocco | 70.00 | Qualified |
| USA | 80.00 | Qualified (Host) |
| Mexico | 80.00 | Qualified (Host) |
| Japan | 90.00 | Qualified |
| Ecuador | 90.00 | Qualified |
Dark Horses (110.00 – 275.00)
| Team | Odds | Status |
| Switzerland | 110.00 | Qualified |
| Senegal | 130.00 | Qualified |
| Austria | 150.00 | Qualified |
| Sweden | 150.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path B) |
| Paraguay | 160.00 | Qualified |
| Korea Republic | 160.00 | Qualified |
| Ghana | 180.00 | Qualified |
| Algeria | 200.00 | Qualified |
| Ivory Coast | 200.00 | Qualified |
| Ukraine | 225.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path B) |
| Canada | 250.00 | Qualified (Host) |
| Egypt | 250.00 | Qualified |
| Turkey | 250.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path C) |
| Poland | 250.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path B) |
| Bolivia | 275.00 | Inter-Confed Playoff |
Longshots (300.00 – 750.00)
| Team | Odds | Status |
| Wales | 300.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path A) |
| Scotland | 375.00 | Qualified |
| Tunisia | 425.00 | Qualified |
| Czechia | 500.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path D) |
| Slovakia | 500.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path C) |
| Romania | 500.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path C) |
| South Africa | 500.00 | Qualified |
| Iran | 500.00 | Qualified |
| Australia | 500.00 | Qualified |
| North Macedonia | 500.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path D) |
| Panama | 750.00 | Qualified |
| Northern Ireland | 750.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path A) |
| DR Congo | 750.00 | Inter-Confed Playoff |
| Kosovo | 750.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path C) |
Deep Longshots (950.00+)
| Team | Odds | Status |
| Republic of Ireland | 950.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path D) |
| Saudi Arabia | 950.00 | Qualified |
| New Zealand | 950.00 | Qualified |
| Albania | 1,000.00 | UEFA Playoff (Path B) |
| Qatar | 1,000.00 | Qualified |
| Jamaica | 1,000.00 | Inter-Confed Playoff |
| Uzbekistan | 1,750.00 | Qualified |
| Curaçao | 2,000.00 | Qualified |
| Suriname | 2,000.00 | Inter-Confed Playoff |
| Jordan | 2,250.00 | Qualified |
| Iraq | 2,500.00 | Inter-Confed Playoff |
| Haiti | 4,500.00 | Qualified |
The top three favorites (Spain, France, and England) account for roughly 46% of the implied probability across the entire field, highlighting just how dominant the market views this trio.
Current Favorites to Win World Cup 2026
Spain
Spain are the outright favorites at 5.00 with ibet, translating to a 20.0% implied probability of winning. Their Euro 2024 triumph demonstrated a cohesive, possession-dominant style that suits the 12-group format perfectly. The squad boasts an exceptional mix of youth talent (Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Nico Williams) combined with experienced leaders like Alvaro Morata and Dani Carvajal.
Spain thrived in 2024 with a free-flowing attacking approach that overwhelmed opponents across the group stage and knockout rounds. While many key players lack significant World Cup tournament experience, their proven ability to dominate possession and control matches against elite opposition is compelling.
At 5.00, Spain’s WC 2026 odds reflect their genuine status as the tournament favorites, making them the choice for confident bettors willing to accept lower returns for a high-probability pick.
France
France sits at 7.60 with ibet, implying a 13.2% winning probability and arguably representing the best value among the elite favorites. As the 2018 World Cup winners and runners-up in the 2022 final, France possess tournament pedigree that few teams can match. Their defensive solidity, anchored by experienced centre-backs and a midfield that controls tempo, distinguishes them from Spain’s more offensive profile.
Kylian Mbappé, when fit, remains one of football’s most decisive players. However, concerns linger: key players are aging, Mbappé has battled fitness issues, and the squad lacks the cohesion that defined their 2018 winning team.
If experience and defensive structure matter more than pure attacking talent in knockout football, France at 7.60 offers significantly better betting value than Spain at 5.00.
England
England shares France’s 7.60 odds at ibet despite playing less convincing football in recent tournaments. The attacking talent is undeniable with the likes of Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham, and Bukayo Saka combining for a generational attacking trio capable of winning any match on their day.
However, England’s historical tournament underperformance relative to squad quality cannot be ignored: they reached Euro 2024’s final but lost to Spain, and have consistently underperformed at World Cups despite having squads full of Premier League talent. Midfield balance remains a persistent issue.
Compared to France at identical odds, England looks slightly less attractive given the tournament experience gap, though the attacking potential remains thrilling for value seekers.
Brazil
Brazil are priced at 8.00 with ibet (12.5% implied probability) and represent an intriguing middle ground between elite favorites and value bets. As the tournament’s most successful nation historically, Brazil’s five World Cup titles carry psychological weight. The squad balances youth and experience with players like Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, and Lucas Paquetá combining creative flair with Casemiro’s midfield protection.
Their quick, attacking transitions suits the 48-team format where defensive vulnerabilities can be exploited by weaker opposition in group play. The concern: Brazil’s tendency to underperform in recent tournaments, struggling at Copa América 2024 and the 2022 World Cup despite having quality squads.
At 8.00, Brazil’s odds might be slightly generous given these recent performances, making them a risky favorite choice despite historical pedigree.
Argentina
Argentina, the defending champions following their 2022 Qatar triumph and 2024 Copa América winners, are valued at 9.00 with ibet (11.1% implied probability). Argentina’s 2024 Copa América victory suggests the squad can compete at the highest level with their current generation. Gonzalo Montiel, Enzo Fernández, and Alejandro Garnacho represent the new generation stepping into leadership roles.
The challenge: no team has won consecutive World Cups since Brazil in 1962, making back-to-back victories extremely difficult. At 9.00, Argentina’s odds might be slightly inflated by their recent success, making them a moderate value pick..
Germany
Germany are priced at 13.00 with ibet (7.7% implied probability), representing interesting value given their historical tournament strength. Absent from 2018’s World Cup knockout rounds for the first time in decades, Germany have undergone significant squad regeneration. Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, and a rebuilt midfield suggest a talented generation ready to compete again.
However, they again failed to advance from their group in Qatar 2022, creating an absence in the later stages that has weakened their claim as perennial contenders. At 13.00, Germany’s odds balance their historical pedigree against recent underperformance… a true value bet if you believe their young talent translates to tournament success.
Portugal
Portugal is valued at 13.00 with ibet (7.7% implied probability), identical to Germany but with a different narrative. Portugal’s consistency at reaching tournament knockouts, like the quarterfinals in both the World Cup 2022 and Euro 2024, demonstrates genuine quality, yet they’ve never won a major tournament.
Their midfield, anchored by veteran experience blended with youthful energy, provides balance. However, like Argentina, aging star players and a squad that hasn’t quite reached the elite tier make Portugal mid-tier favorites rather than genuine contenders. At 13.00, Portugal offers value if you believe their tournament experience and midfield quality can finally deliver, but they’re not an obvious play.
Netherlands
The Dutch are priced at 21.00 with ibet (4.8% implied probability), representing a classic overlooked team with strong fundamentals. Netherlands consistently challenge at major tournaments (Euro 2024 semifinals, 2022 World Cup quarterfinals) through disciplined tactical play and technical midfield mastery. Their star players (Frenkie de Jong, Matthijs de Ligt, Memphis Depay) perform at elite club level, yet the team rarely translates club success into major tournament victories.
At 21.00, Netherlands represent a contrarian value play: if you believe their tournament experience and technical quality can overcome their historical inability to close out matches, they offer excellent odds relative to likelihood of reaching at least the semifinals.
World Cup 2026 Qualification Playoffs: 22 Teams Fighting for Final Six Spots
With 42 teams already confirmed for the tournament, the six remaining spots will be decided via playoff matches in March 2026 and just three months before kickoff. Teams grinding through high-pressure knockouts will have minimal preparation time before group-stage matches begin. And that fatigue factor rarely gets priced into outright markets correctly.
UEFA Playoffs (4 Spots)
Sixteen European teams compete across four knockout paths for the final four UEFA berths. The draw has produced some genuinely compelling matchups and a few potential banana peels for the favorites.
Path A features the headline clash: Italy hosting Northern Ireland in a must-win semifinal. The Azzurri have failed to qualify for two consecutive World Cups through these exact playoff scenarios. In 2017, Sweden eliminated them. In 2022, North Macedonia pulled off the shock. At 1.35, the market clearly expects Italy to break the curse. But that price looks thin given their playoff trauma. Wales welcomes Bosnia and Herzegovina in the other semifinal, priced at 2.00 to advance at home.
Path B offers the most competitive bracket on paper. Ukraine vs Sweden shapes up as a genuine 50/50 affair and the odds reflect it with Ukraine at 2.65 and Sweden at 2.80. Poland faces Albania in the other semi, installed as 1.75 favorites to reach another major tournament.
Path C pits Turkey against Romania and Slovakia against Kosovo. Slovakia enters as the 1.92 home favorite, while Kosovo sits at 4.35 as the underdog looking to pull off something historic.
Path D looks like Denmark’s to lose. They’re heavy 1.26 favorites against North Macedonia, while Czech Republic (1.98) and Republic of Ireland (4.00) contest the other semifinal in what could be the tightest match of Path D.
UEFA Playoff Semifinal Odds – March 26, 2026
| Match | Home Team | Odds | Draw | Away Team | Odds |
| Path A – SF1 | Italy | 1.35 | 5.00 | Northern Ireland | 10.00 |
| Path A – SF2 | Wales | 2.00 | 3.30 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4.20 |
| Path B – SF3 | Ukraine | 2.65 | 3.30 | Sweden | 2.80 |
| Path B – SF4 | Poland | 1.75 | 3.75 | Albania | 5.00 |
| Path C – SF6 | Slovakia | 1.92 | 3.50 | Kosovo | 4.35 |
| Path D – SF7 | Denmark | 1.26 | 6.00 | North Macedonia | 13.00 |
| Path D – SF8 | Czech Republic | 1.98 | 3.50 | Republic of Ireland | 4.00 |
All matches kick off 20:45 CET. Single-leg knockouts—extra time and penalties if required.*
Inter-Confederation Playoffs (2 Spots)
Six teams from outside Europe contest two separate brackets for the final two World Cup spots. These matches take place in Mexico, adding neutral-venue dynamics to an already unpredictable format.
Bracket 1: New Caledonia faces Jamaica in the semifinal, with the winner advancing to meet DR Congo in the final. Jamaica enters as the clear favorite given their CONCACAF pedigree, but DR Congo, fresh off eliminating Nigeria in the CAF playoffs, represents a serious threat in the final.
Bracket 2: Bolivia plays Suriname in the semifinal, with the victor meeting Iraq in the final. Iraq earned their spot by edging UAE 3-2 on aggregate in a dramatic two-legged affair.
Both brackets follow the same March 26 (semifinals) and March 31 (finals) schedule, hosted in Guadalajara and Monterrey.
Betting Implications
Playoff results represent significant uncertainty that smart bettors can exploit. Consider these angles:
- Preparation gap: Teams emerging through March 31 playoffs will have barely 10 weeks before the June 11 opener. Compare that to sides like Spain or Argentina, who’ve known their qualification status since autumn. That recovery window matters, especially for squads playing high-intensity knockout football just months before a major tournament.
- Injury exposure: Key players may pick up knocks during intense playoff matches. Italy losing a starting midfielder in extra time against Northern Ireland would materially affect their outright odds. Monitor team news closely once the playoff picture clarifies.
- Pot 4 placement: All six playoff winners land in Pot 4 for the group draw. That means potential mismatches… or opportunities. Italy qualifying means they could draw into a group with Spain, Croatia, and Scotland. That’s a brutal path for a team already battle-scarred from playoffs.
- Market inefficiency window: The period between March 31 (playoff finals) and the December 5th group draw creates a brief window where outright odds may not fully reflect new information. Sharp bettors should have their assessments ready before the market adjusts.
World Cup 2026 Qualified Teams by Confederation
| Confederation | Slots | Qualified Teams |
| Europe (UEFA) | 12 | Austria, Belgium, Croatia, England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Scotland, Spain, Switzerland |
| South America (CONMEBOL) | 6 | Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay |
| Africa (CAF) | 9 | Algeria, Cape Verde, Egypt, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia |
| Asia (AFC) | 8 | Australia, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Uzbekistan |
| North/Central America (CONCACAF) | 6 | Canada (host), Curaçao, Haiti, Mexico (host), Panama, USA (host) |
| Oceania (OFC) | 1 | New Zealand |
World Cup 2026 Notable Debuts & Returns
Several teams earning World Cup berths deserve particular mention:
- Cape Verde: Historic first-ever World Cup qualification represents a breakthrough for African football’s rising nations.
- Jordan: First World Cup appearance in the nation’s football history marking a remarkable achievement for West Asian football.
- Curacao: Smallest country to ever qualify for a World Cup and a shocker from CONCACAF.
- Uzbekistan: First World Cup since gaining independence; represents Central Asian resurgence.
- Haiti: Historic return to the World Cup after 52 years away (last appeared in 1974).
- Norway: Returns after 28 years (last qualified in 1998); new generation squad with improved quality.
- Austria: Returns after 28 years (last qualified in 1998); impressive qualifying campaign proves sustainable improvement.
- Scotland: Returns after 28 years (last qualified in 1998); continues recent tournament appearances at Euros.
World Cup 2026 Tournament Overview & Key Facts
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be hosted across three nations for the first time in tournament history: the United States, Mexico, and Canada. This groundbreaking expansion to 48 teams (up from the traditional 32) fundamentally changes how the tournament works and creates new opportunities for bettors to exploit.
When & Where: June 11 – July 19, 2026
The tournament spans over five weeks, running through the summer months in North America. Host cities are spread across all three nations, though the majority of matches will be played in the United States. The expanded schedule means far more matches and more opportunities for surprises compared to previous World Cups.
The 48-Team Format: 12 Groups of 4 Teams
Instead of 8 groups of 4 teams, the 2026 World Cup features 12 groups of 4 teams each. Every team plays three group-stage matches (one per matchday). The top two teams from each group advance automatically, plus the eight best-performing third-placed teams. This means 16 teams are eliminated in the group stage—significantly fewer than the traditional format where typically 8-12 teams go home.
Total Matches: 104 (up from 64 in previous tournaments)
The increase in total matches favors stronger teams with deeper squads, as they’ll play more matches before reaching the knockout rounds. However, the “eight best third-placed teams advancing” rule also creates opportunities for underdogs to sneak through if they avoid group-stage elimination.
Host Countries: USA, Mexico & Canada
Home advantage is historically significant in World Cups, but success is far from guaranteed. France won on home soil in 1998, but more recently Qatar (2022) was eliminated in the group stage despite hosting the tournament. The geographical spread across three countries means some teams may have slight travel advantages depending on group placement and knockout draw positioning.
World Cup 2026 Odds Analysis: Trends & Value
Dark Horse Picks: High-Risk, High-Reward
Italy at 35.00 offers speculative value if you believe their 2024 squad rebirth under new coach Luciano Spalletti delivers major tournament success. However, their complete absence from the 2022 World Cup creates genuine uncertainty as bouncing back from non-qualification requires significant psychological resilience.
Belgium at 50.00 provides veteran talent with Axel Witsel and Kevin De Bruyne potentially playing their final World Cup. If they can rediscover cohesion from their 2018-era success, 50.00 offers decent odds for a semifinal run, though expectations should remain modest.
Uruguay at 50.00 brings historical pedigree (two-time champions) and tactical toughness, but aging squad concerns limit realistic upside beyond quarterfinals.
Format Impact: How 48 Teams Change World Cup 2026 Odds
The 48-team, 12-group format creates new dynamics when it comes to football betting:
More Matches = Smaller Margins Matter
With more games before reaching the knockout rounds, injury luck, weather conditions, and referee decisions compound more than before. Strong squads with depth handle this better, subtly favoring traditional powerhouses with larger player pools.
Eight Third-Place Teams Advance (Previously Four)
This rule dramatically increases the probability of weaker teams sneaking through, especially if they avoid knockout-stage favorites in their group. This inflates odds for underdogs but doesn’t fundamentally change elite contender dynamics.
Group-Stage Pressure Reduced
In 32-team tournaments, finishing third often means elimination. Now, a team can lose two group matches and still advance via the third-place rule. This reduces pressure-induced mistakes but extends tournament time for all teams, potentially benefiting consistent performers like Spain and France while hurting streaky teams relying on momentum.
All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and may have moved since the content was published. Betting markets shift constantly based on action and betting news. For the latest odds and current lines, visit the ibet Sportsbook.
World Cup 2026 Odds FAQs
Who are the favorites to win the World Cup 2026?
Spain are the favorites at 5.00 (ibet), following their Euro 2024 victory. France (7.60) and England (7.60) follow closely as elite contenders. Brazil (8.00) and Argentina (9.00) complete the top tier of favorites. These five teams account for roughly two-thirds of the implied probability across the entire field, indicating significant market confidence in established tournament performers.
What are Spain’s World Cup 2026 odds at ibet?
Spain are priced at 5.00 in decimal format with ibet, translating to a 20.0% implied probability of winning. This makes them the clear favorites based on their Euro 2024 victory and strong squad composition blending youth talent with proven winners.
What does implied probability mean in betting?
Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage representing the market’s assessment of how likely an outcome is. For example, odds of 5.00 (decimal) imply a 20% probability (calculated as 1 ÷ 5.00 = 0.20 or 20%). This helps bettors compare odds across different formats and assess whether they think the true probability is higher or lower than the market’s implied estimate.
Which teams offer the best value with the current World Cup 2026 odds?
France at 7.60 and Germany at 13.00 represent strong value plays. France combines tournament experience (2018 winners, 2024 Euro finalists) with defensive solidity, yet receive longer odds than England despite superior tournament pedigree. Germany’s young talent (Wirtz, Musiala) and historical pedigree may be underpriced at 13.00. Netherlands at 21.00 also offer excellent contrarian value for bettors believing their technical quality translates to tournament success.
Can the USA, Mexico, or Canada win the World Cup?
Home advantage is historically significant but not a lock. France won in 1998, but Qatar crashed out at group stage in 2022. USA (80.00), Mexico (80.00), and Canada (250.00) have minimal realistic chances based on squad quality. USA remains the strongest of the three hosts and might sneak into quarterfinals if group draw and injuries break favorably, but tournament victory is extremely unlikely. Betting on hosts requires genuine belief that home comfort and favorable crowds can elevate squad quality beyond realistic expectations.
Which teams are still fighting for World Cup 2026 spots?
Six teams will be determined through playoffs in March 2026. UEFA playoffs will award four spots with Italy, Turkey, Wales, Denmark, and Ukraine among notable participants. Inter-confederation playoffs will award two spots, with New Caledonia, Jamaica, Bolivia, Suriname, DR Congo, and Iraq competing. These playoff qualifiers will have minimal preparation time (only 2-3 weeks before the June 11 tournament start) potentially creating group-stage vulnerabilities worth exploiting in odds markets.
What’s the difference between favorites and value bets?
Favorites are teams the market believes most likely to win (Spain, France, England), indicated by shorter odds and lower potential returns. Value bets are teams the market underprices relative to their realistic winning probability (Netherlands, Germany, Portugal). Favorites offer higher win probability but lower returns; value bets offer lower win probability but higher potential returns if correct. Sharp bettors identify situations where the market’s implied probability diverges from their calculated true probability then that gap represents value.
When should I place my World Cup 2026 bets?
Early betting (now through March) captures higher odds before playoff results are known and squad injuries are clarified. However, markets will likely tighten and stabilize as June approaches, and odds adjustment for playoff qualifiers may create specific arbitrage opportunities. Pre-tournament betting (May-early June) allows you to incorporate final squad information and playoff results but faces tighter odds. Live betting during the tournament offers dynamic odds adjusting to form. Each timing approach has merit depending on your strategy and information access.
