Picture this: A 29-year-old Norwegian skier stands on the verge of becoming an Olympic legend. With five Olympic gold medals already gleaming in his trophy case, Johannes Høsflot Klæbo needs just three more to tie the all-time cross-country skiing record and four to break it entirely.
With the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics beginning this weekend, it’s clear that the “Comet from Trondheim” has his sights set on history.
But here’s where it gets interesting for bettors: After his unprecedented 6-for-6 gold medal sweep at the 2025 World Championships in his hometown, where he won every single race he entered, Klæbo arrives in Italy as the most dominant force in winter sports, perhaps in history. Something like Michael Phelps on ice, if you may.
The question with Klaebo isn’t whether he’ll win medals. It’s how many, and whether the cross country betting markets, at ibet, have properly priced his Winter Olympics assault.
Johannes Høsflot Klæbo Best Bets Summary
- Best Bet: Klæbo Over 2.5 Individual Gold Medals at 2.67
Conservative Play: Klæbo Over 2.5 Individual Medals at 1.30
High-Risk Longshot: Klæbo to Win Gold in All Individual Events at 15.00
Also Consider: Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget Over 0.5 Total Gold Medals at 2.25
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Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics
- Venue: Val di Fiemme, Italy
- Dates: February 6-22, 2026
- Betting Deadline: February 7, 2026, 07:00 CET
Understanding Cross-Country Skiing: What Makes This Sport Unique
Before we dive into the betting analysis, let’s talk about why cross-country skiing creates such fascinating wagering opportunities. Unlike downhill alpine skiing where one mistake costs you everything, or figure skating where judges control your fate, cross-country is a war of attrition fought over kilometers of grueling terrain.
These are some of the cross-country’s betting quirks:
Weather is everything
Temperature swings of just 3-5 degrees can transform race outcomes. Cold, dry snow favors Scandinavian-trained athletes. Warm, wet conditions level the playing field and Val di Fiemme’s Italian climate tends toward the latter.
Wax selection is lottery-like
Teams spend race morning testing different ski waxes. Get it right, and you glide effortlessly. Get it wrong, and your skis feel like they’re moving through sand. This introduces variance that savvy bettors can exploit.
Multiple techniques, multiple skill sets
“Classical” uses parallel skis in groomed tracks. “Freestyle” (skating) allows diagonal strides. The Skiathlon combines both which requires a mid-race ski change. Some athletes dominate one style but struggle in the other.
Elimination rounds in sprints
Sprint races use a knockout format: qualification, quarterfinals, semifinals, finals. The fastest qualifier can crash in the quarters and finish nowhere. Tactical positioning matters as much as raw speed.
This complexity creates cross-country betting edges. While casual money piles onto recognizable names, informed bettors understand that course profiles, altitude, and even which Norwegian media outlets report positive wax testing can shift the odds.
The Johannes Høsflot Klæbo Phenomenon
Johannes Høsflot Klæbo wasn’t always inevitable. Sure, skiing is Norway’s national religion. They’re born with skis on, as the saying goes, but Klæbo’s path had doubters. At 17, he ranked 82nd in youth standings. Then something clicked. By 18, he’d jumped to 2nd. By 21, he was World Cup overall champion and the youngest ever.
Fast forward to PyeongChang 2018, and a 21-year-old Klæbo announced himself with three Olympic golds, including that electric individual sprint where he seemed to teleport past competitors on the final climb. Beijing 2022 added four more medals (2 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze). But the 2025 World Championships in Trondheim? That was transcendent.
The Trondheim Triumph
Six races entered. Six golds won. Sprint, distance, relay, skiathlon… everything. An estimated 100,000 fans watched his final victory. Norwegian legend Petter Northug, never one for hyperbole, declared Klæbo “the king of cross-country skiing.” Even the typically measured FIS (International Ski Federation) asked: “Is he the greatest cross-country skier ever?”
Coming into Milano Cortina 2026, Klæbo just won his record-breaking fifth Tour de Ski title in early January, dominating both sprints and distance races. He leads the overall World Cup standings by 30 points. His FIS points (the sport’s ranking metric where lower is better) sit near zero… the statistical definition of perfection.
The man is on one.
Navigating the Johannes Høsflot Klæbo Prop Bets
Klæbo’s Individual Events:
- Men’s Sprint Classic (Likely Feb 10)
- Men’s Skiathlon 2×10km (Feb 8)
- Men’s 10km Freestyke (Likely Feb 13)
- Men’s 50km Mass Start Classic (Feb 21)
- Note: Team Sprint & 4×10km Relay excluded from individual medal counts
Now let’s dig into ibet’s offerings and separate value from hype.
The Main Event: Over/Under 2.5 Individual Gold Medals
- Over 2.5 Individual Gold Medals at 2.67
Now we’re talking. This requires three or more individual golds from four events. Let’s break down his realistic medal card:
Sprint Classic (Feb 10)
85% gold probability. Klæbo has won this event at the last two Olympics. He’s the defending champion, current World Champion, and just demolished the competition in early January sprints. Val di Fiemme’s technical course with the final uphill, his signature move, suits him perfectly. Barring a quarterfinal crash or equipment malfunction, this is money.
Skiathlon 2×10km (Feb 8)
55% gold probability. Here’s where it gets spicy. Historically, Klæbo struggled at distance events:10th in PyeongChang and 40th (!) in Beijing. But Trondheim 2025 changed everything. He won the 20km skiathlon convincingly, showcasing improved endurance. His recent World Cup skiathlon victories suggest he’s evolved from pure sprinter to genuine all-rounder. The risk? Finland’s Iivo Niskanen specializes in this format.
10km Freestyle(Feb 13)
45% gold probability. Klæbo took bronze here in Beijing 2022, finishing behind Niskanen and Bolshunov. It’s his third-most likely gold, but far from guaranteed. If warm Val di Fiemme conditions slow the course, he could struggle.
50km Mass Start Classic (Feb 21)
30% gold probability. The marathon. Until 2025, nobody imagined Klæbo even attempting this… it’s like watching Usain Bolt run a marathon. But his Trondheim 50km gold changed perceptions. Still, the Winter Olympics are different. The field includes ultra-distance specialists like Harald Østberg Amundsen and Mattis Stenshagen. Both of them are Norwegian teammates who live for this race. Weather will be a wildcard; if it’s warm and slow, Klæbo’s sprint speed becomes less decisive.
At 2.67 odds, you’re getting an implied probability of 37.5%. That’s a massive value gap if our 60-65% estimate holds.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Individual Gold Medals at 2.67
The Moonshot: All Individual Events Gold (15.00)
This is the romantic’s bet. Klæbo winning Sprint + Skiathlon + 15km + 50km would cement him as the undisputed GOAT. The 15.00 odds imply a 6.7% chance.
Reality check: He’d need to beat specialists at their own game across four different race types over two weeks. The 50km alone seems unlikely, it’s held on the final day when fatigue accumulates, and his Norwegian teammates will be gunning for their only individual medal chance. The 15km against Niskanen on a good day is a coin flip.
Multiply those probabilities: 85% (Sprint) × 55% (Skiathlon) × 45% (Freestyle) × 30% (50km) = 6.3% chance. Eerily close to the implied odds.
Verdict: This is almost fairly priced. If you believe Klæbo’s 2025 form represents a permanent evolution rather than a peak, there’s tiny value here. But you’re essentially betting on perfection: one bad wax day, one strategic error, one teammate hitting God mode ruins it.
Fun Bet: Small fun bet only at 15.00
The Dark Horse
- Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget Over 0.5 Individual Gold Medals at 2.25
Wait, who? Nyenget is a 28-year-old Norwegian who flies under the radar but sits 12th in World Cup overall standings.
If Klæbo stumbles (and the 50km is where he’s most vulnerable) Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget emerges as a genuine threat. The 28-year-old Norwegian sits as the second favorite overall in the Olympic medal race, trailing only Klæbo, and he brings serious credentials to Milano Cortina 2026.
Nyenget’s positioning across individual events is telling: he’s the second favorite in the Skiathlon and third favorite in the 10km Freestyle… meaning he’s priced to medal in distance events where Klæbo’s historical weakness (before 2025) still lingers. While Klæbo relies on his explosive sprint speed to dominate distance races, Nyenget is a pure endurance specialist who thrives in sustained efforts.
Here’s the angle: If weather conditions favor traditional distance runners over explosive sprinters (warmer temperatures that slow the course and reward pacing discipline rather than finishing power) Nyenget could outpace Klæbo in one or both distance events.
At 2.25, you’re getting 44% implied probability for just one gold medal. But given Nyenget’s status as second favorite overall and his favorable positioning in multiple events, realistic gold probability sits closer to 55-60%. That’s meaningful value, especially since he only needs to win one event to cash this bet.
Value Bet: Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget Over 0.5 Individual Gold Medals at 2.25
Betting on Johannes Høsflot Klæbo
Cross-country skiing betting rewards the obsessive. While casual bettors see “that Norwegian guy” and assume locks, the sport’s intricacies (weather, wax, technique, tactics) create edges for those who dig deeper.
Klæbo’s quest for 8+ Olympic golds is generational. You’re watching the potential GOAT chase history in real-time. The Over 2.5 bet at 2.67 offers genuine value because bookmakers are hedging against the 50km and 15km uncertainty. But Klæbo only needs 3 of 4, and Sprint + Skiathlon feel near-certain.
Is he vulnerable? Sure. One bad wax test. One tactical error in an elimination round. One teammate finding transcendent form in distance events. But betting against peak Klæbo in Milano Cortina 2026 feels like betting against Usain Bolt in 2012 or Michael Phelps in 2008.
The Norwegian Comet is coming. And at these cross-country betting odds, it’s worth riding along.
Lock it in. Enjoy the races. And maybe learn some Norwegian to follow their wax testing reports!
All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and may have moved since the content was published. Betting markets shift constantly based on action and betting news. For the latest odds and current lines, visit the ibet Sportsbook.
