Professional punters love Winter Olympics betting. Why? Smaller talent pools means better chances of predictable outcomes for informed players. Niche sports tend to mean softer lines and, in multi-week tournaments, the edge compounds.
Most sportsbooks are razor-sharp on football and basketball. But biathlon? Ski mountaineering? It allows for better betting value more often than not. The Winter Olympics 2026, in Milano Cortina from February 6 to the 22, offers 109 medal events across 16 disciplines, the most in Winter Olympics betting history.
At ibet, we believe every bettor deserves to understand how Winter Olympics betting actually works. Not the hype, but the mechanics and the edges. By the time you finish reading, you’ll know exactly how to exploit the specific dynamics that make Milano Cortina 2026 different from every other sporting event you can bet on this year,
So, get ready to learn what you need to know about Winter Olympics betting because this isn’t your typical landscape. For example, weather delays shift alpine skiing advantages, while shooting accuracy can determine biathlon outcomes in seconds and figure skating judges introduce subjective variance most bettors ignore. Just to mention a few!
New dynamics are in play, as well. NHL players return after a 12-year absence and Ski mountaineering debuts with zero historical Olympic data. Italy hosts alpine events on courses their athletes train on year-round. These aren’t minor details but rather value opportunities hiding in plain sight.
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Also, visit our betting news blog for Winter Olympic betting updates, odds movement analysis, and tips.
How to Bet on the Winter Olympics
The Winter Olympics isn’t a weekend tournament. It’s a 17-day marathon where conditions change daily, form reveals itself gradually, and early rounds offer value before the public piles on favorites.
Tournament Structure Creates Betting Windows
Most Winter Olympic betting events follow a qualification-semifinal-final structure spread across multiple days. Early heats (qualifications) carry minimal public betting volume, thus lines can be softer. By the time finals arrive, recreational bettors flood the market, tightening odds on favorites.
The edge: Back qualifiers before public awareness peaks. A speed skater posting a personal best in heats sees odds collapse by finals. If you waited, you’re getting 2.80 instead of 4.50.
Weather Is a Main Factor
Alpine skiing, ski jumping, snowboarding, and biathlon outcomes can swing dramatically depending on weather. Wind delays downhill races. Temperature affects snow consistency (harder snow = faster times). Fog postpones ski jumping.
Check conditions the morning of events. If forecasts predict wind gusts above 25 km/h at Cortina, downhill specialists struggle. Technical skiers gain advantage.
Home Advantage Is Quantifiable and Underpriced
Host nations consistently overperform in “home” sports. Data proves it:
- 2018 PyeongChang: South Korea won 5 short track speed skating golds (0 in 2014)
- 2014 Sochi: Russia won 13 golds (11 in Vancouver 2010)
- 2010 Vancouver: Canada won 14 golds (7 in Turin 2006)
Statistical analysis shows host nations average a 30% increase in gold medals in sports where course/venue familiarity matters (alpine skiing, bobsled, luge). Italy hosting alpine events at Cortina d’Ampezzo, where Italian skiers train regularly, can create a measurable edge.
Small Sample Sizes Favor Recent Form Over History
Most Winter Olympic athletes compete at Olympic-level intensity 1-2 times per year maximum. Between Olympics, they race World Cups which tend to have similar conditions. Olympic performance four years ago is nearly irrelevant.
Recent World Cup results (last 6-8 weeks) predict Olympic outcomes far better than career Olympic medals. A biathlete who won 3 World Cups in January 2026 carries more predictive weight than someone who medaled in Beijing 2022 but hasn’t podiumed since.
At ibet, our live betting platform lets you capitalize on real-time condition changes. When weather shifts mid-event or an athlete dominates early heats, odds update instantly.
Understanding Olympic Betting Markets
Outright Winner Betting: Who wins gold. Most common market. Example: Johannes Høsflot Klæbo (Norway) to win gold in Cross Country 10km C + 10km F.
Podium Finish Betting (Each-Way): Top 3 finish. Better value than outrights in events with 4-5 legitimate contenders. Example: Yuma Kagiyama (Japan) 3.00 for podium in men’s figure skating vs 19.00 outright gold.
Why each-way matters: Many Olympic events are coin flips among the top tier. Ski mountaineering (new sport, zero Olympic history) might have 6 athletes within 5% ability. Backing one at 6.00 for gold is speculation. Backing podium at 2.50 is probability.
Head-to-Head Matchups: Two athletes directly compared. Common in alpine skiing and speed skating. Example: Will Mikaela Shiffrin finish ahead of Petra Vlhová in slalom? (Shiffrin 1.65, Vlhová 2.20)
Medal Count Betting: Total medals per country. For example, Norway is currently favoured at 1.25 for most gold medals.
Live Betting: Real-time odds during events.
Props Specific to Winter Olympics:
- Ice hockey total goals per game (Under 5.5 at 1.90—Olympic rinks are larger, more open play than NHL)
- Figure skating score range (Will winning score exceed 220 points? Over 1.85)
- Alpine skiing winning margin (Will downhill winner beat 2nd place by 0.5+ seconds? Yes 2.10)
Player Props:
Sometimes sporting events give you more than just a match or medal markets. They can put athletes on the verge of history, and that’s where player props come alive.
Speaking of Klaebo, at ibet, you’ll find exclusive specials like “Klaebo to win gold in all individual events at Milano Cortina 2026” at 15.00 odds, letting you back a historic run rather than a single race.
Currently, Klaebo is chasing a record no cross-country skier has ever achieved, looking to surpass Marit Bjoergen’s eight golds and potentially reach 11 by sweeping his events in Italy, which would make him the most decorated Winter Olympian of all time. Read our betting analysis for this props at our blog!
The key insight: Winter Olympics props carry less public betting volume than mainstream sports. Sportsbooks set lines conservatively. Informed bettors find edges.
Top Winter Olympic Sports to Bet On
Not all Winter Olympic betting offers equal value. Freestyle skiing has high variance (one mistake in aerials = elimination). Luge is essentially random (equipment and draw position matter more than skill variance among top 10). Ski jumping is weather chaos.
Focus on sports where form is predictable and sample sizes allow analysis. And yes, there is more to Winter Olympics betting than ice hockey or curling!
Ice Hockey Betting (NHL Players Return)
The biggest story of Milano Cortina 2026: NHL stars are back after a 12-year Olympic absence. Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid is elite talent that sat out during PyeongChang 2018 and Beijing 2022. In women’s Olympic ice hockey, the question seems to be only whether Canada or the US will win the gold.
This changes everything.
Key Betting Difference vs NHL:
Olympic ice is larger (IIHF regulation: 60m × 30m vs NHL 61m × 26m). The extra width creates more open play, favors skilled passers over physical grinders. Scoring increases 8-12% compared to NHL games.
No fighting allowed. NHL penalty dynamics don’t translate. European teams (Sweden, Finland, Switzerland) emphasize discipline—they draw fewer penalties than North American teams accustomed to NHL physicality.
Overtime rules: Sudden death 3-on-3 after regulation. Shootouts follow if tied. NHL uses similar format, but international rules allow different line changes.
Check the ibet men’s ice hockey Winter Olympics 2026 betting guide for further info!
Figure Skating Betting Markets
Figure skating introduces subjective judging into Olympic betting. Most bettors avoid it because they feel it’s too unpredictable. That’s the edge. Judging isn’t random. It follows patterns.
Scoring System (Simplified):
- Technical Element Score (TES): Jump difficulty, spins, footwork. Objective base value with execution deductions.
- Program Component Score (PCS): Artistic interpretation, choreography, transitions. Subjective, but consistent per judge.
Total score = TES + PCS.
- Typical winning men’s score: 210-220 points.
- Typical winning women’s score: 145-155.
Why the Short Program Predicts the Free Skate
Historical analysis: The leader after the short program wins gold 78% of the time (2006-2022 data). Why? Because TES scores are consistent. A skater who nails technical elements in the short program usually repeats in the free skate. PCS scores are sticky and judges rarely shift artistic marks dramatically between programs.
Betting Strategy: Wait for short program results. If your favorite underperforms (falls on a jump, low TES), their free skate odds become value plays if you believe they’ll recover. If they dominate the short program, their odds tighten thus avoid overpriced favorites.
Men’s Event: Ilia Malinin is the Quad God
Ilia Malinin (USA) is the only skater in the world who lands a quad axel (4.5 rotations). He’s favored at 1.01 for gold. But he’s injury-prone and missed competitions in late 2025 with ankle issues.
Yuma Kagiyama (Japan) at 19.00 offers value. Consistent, strong PCS scores, rarely falls. In a sport where one mistake ruins your chances, consistency beats ceiling.
Alpine Skiing Betting Tips
Alpine skiing at Cortina d’Ampezzo is where Italian home advantage is most pronounced. These courses are where Dominik Paris, Sofia Goggia, and Federica Brignone train year-round. They know every turn, every terrain shift, every snow condition variation.
Weather Impact is Everything
Downhill racing depends on snow consistency. Hard-packed snow = faster times. Fresh powder = slower, unpredictable. Temperature swings between morning and afternoon runs change conditions dramatically.
On the morning of the event, check:
- Wind speed (above 25 km/h delays races or advantages technical skiers)
- Temperature (warmer = softer snow, favors aggressive skiers)
- Cloud cover (fog postpones events, creates chaos)
Italian Athletes Are Value Plays
Dominik Paris (Italy) 9.40 for downhill gold. He’s won 3 World Cup downhills at Cortina this season. Course knowledge is a measurable 3-5% advantage (data from 2018 PyeongChang, where Korean short track skaters dominated home ice).
Sofia Goggia (Italy) 2.15 for women’s downhill. She’s the defending Olympic champion, but she’s also dealing with home crowd pressure. Does pressure elevate or crumble athletes? Goggia thrives under pressure and has won worlds in Italy before.
Form Indicators: Recent World Cup Results
Marco Odermatt (Switzerland) is the men’s favorite at 2.37 for giant slalom gold. Why? He’s won 8 of the last 10 World Cup giant slalom races. That’s not variance but rather dominance.
In alpine skiing, recent form (last 4-6 weeks) is the single best predictor. Athletes peak for the Olympics. Someone who struggled in December but won 3 World Cups in January is a better bet than a career legend who hasn’t podiumed lately.
Event Breakdown for Betting:
- Downhill: Pure speed, one run. Course knowledge critical. Bet on: Italians at Cortina, recent World Cup winners.
- Slalom: Technical precision, two runs. Consistency matters. Bet on: Athletes with low error rates (check DNF percentages).
- Giant Slalom: Mix of speed + technique, two runs. Bet on: All-around skiers (Odermatt).
- Super-G: One run, high variance. Avoid or bet small—equipment and draw position matter too much.
- Combined: Downhill + slalom. Bet on: Versatile athletes who podium in both disciplines.
Avoid Sentiment Bets: Lindsey Vonn
Lindsey Vonn is attempting a comeback at age 41. She crashed in her final race before the Olympics (January 2026). The story is compelling. The betting value isn’t there. Her recent form is poor. Avoid.
Biathlon Betting Strategy
Biathlon is Europe’s winter sport. Norway, Germany, France, and Sweden have won 85% of biathlon medals since 2006.
What Makes Biathlon Unique for Winter Olympics Betting
Cross-country skiing endurance + rifle shooting precision. Athletes ski laps, stop at shooting ranges, fire at 5 targets. Miss a target = 150-meter penalty loop (or 1-minute time penalty, depending on event format).
One missed shot = 20-30 second disadvantage. Top biathletes shoot 85-95% accuracy. The difference between gold and 5th place is often one shot.
Key Betting Factor: Shooting Accuracy Stats
This is your edge. Recent World Cup shooting stats (last 3-5 races) predict Olympic outcomes better than skiing speed. Why? Skiing fitness is consistent at this level. Shooting under Olympic pressure is variable.
Event Types and Betting Strategy
- Individual (20km men, 15km women): 4 shooting rounds, 1-minute penalty per miss. Longest race, endurance matters. Bet on: Proven Olympians who handle pressure.
- Sprint (10km men, 7.5km women): 2 shooting rounds. Faster, more variance. Bet on: Athletes with 90%+ shooting accuracy (less room for error).
- Pursuit: Staggered start based on sprint results. Wait for sprint outcomes, live bet pursuit based on who’s in position.
- Mass Start: 30 athletes start together, 4 shooting rounds. Chaos. Bet on underdogs at 12.00+ odds because variance is your friend in mass chaos.
- Relay (4-person teams): Norway 1.75 favorites (men’s). Germany 2.50 (women’s). Value play: France men’s relay at 4.50 has strong shooting, underrated.
Ski Mountaineering Betting (New Sport)
Ski mountaineering debuts at Milano Cortina 2026. This is the biggest betting opportunity of the entire Olympics.
Why? Zero Olympic historical data. Sportsbooks are setting odds based on World Championship results and limited ISMF World Cup races. Small sample sizes. No Olympic pressure data. No track record of how athletes perform on the Olympic stage.
When bookmakers operate with incomplete information, edges appear.
What is Ski Mountaineering?
Uphill skiing (using skins on skis for traction) + downhill racing + equipment transitions. It’s a mix of cross-country skiing endurance and alpine skiing speed. Athletes climb steep slopes, transition gear at checkpoints, then descend at race pace.
Events:
- Sprint: Short, intense race (~4km, 400m elevation gain). 3-4 minutes of maximum effort.
- Individual: Endurance race (~10km, 1,200m elevation). 30-40 minutes.
- Mixed Relay: 2 men + 2 women per team. Strategy and transitions matter.
Winter Olympics Betting Medal Favorites
Betting on total medal counts (countries) is one of the most +EV Winter Olympics markets. Why? Long tournament duration evens out variance. Historical data is highly predictive. Public betting volume is low (most bettors focus on individual events).
Norway: Winter Olympics Powerhouse
2022 Beijing: 16 gold medals, 37 total medals (most ever by any nation). 2018 PyeongChang: 14 golds, 39 total. 2014 Sochi: 11 golds, 26 total.
Dominance in: Cross-country skiing (11 medals in Beijing), biathlon (6 medals), ski jumping, Nordic combined.
2026 Odds:
- Most gold medals: 1.25
- Most total medals: 1.40
Betting Analysis: Norway is correctly priced as favorite. But the value play is Norway Over 15.5 gold medals at 2.40. They’ve exceeded 14 golds in the last two Olympics. Cross-country skiing and biathlon offer 20+ medal opportunities and Norway wins 50%+ of those.
Weakness: Alpine skiing (only 2 medals in Beijing). But their strength in endurance sports more than compensates.
Final Winter Olympics Betting Insights
Winter Olympics betting rewards specialization. You don’t need to bet on every sport. Focus on 2-3 disciplines, study recent World Cup results, track shooting accuracy (biathlon), monitor weather (alpine skiing), and exploit new sports (ski mountaineering).
Home advantage is real and quantifiable. Live betting is critical. Conditions change mid-event (weather, shooting misses, early heat results).
Milano Cortina 2026 starts February 6. The edges are already appearing. The question is whether you’ll recognize them before the rest of the market does.
All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and may have moved since the content was published. Betting markets shift constantly based on action and betting news. For the latest odds and current lines, visit the ibet Sportsbook.
